Public Gaming International November/December 2021

24 PUBLIC GAMING INTERNATIONAL • NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2021 MEGATRENDS: FORECASTING CAN BE A TRICKY BUSINESS Methods for predicting the future: 1) read horoscopes, tea leaves, tarot cards, or crystal balls . . . collectively known as "nutty methods;" 2) put well-researched facts into sophisticated computer . . . commonly referred to as "a complete waste of time." Scott Adams, Artist, Cartoonist, Creator of the Dilbert comic Jim Acton, Lottery Industry Consultant T he past two years have certainly given credence to this quote from the creator of the Dilbert cartoons. Everything we thought might happen in 2020 was altered when the pandemic hit in March of that year. We rang in 2021 hoping that the new year would bring in a new atmosphere. And, well, not so much. While more precise predictions like “how will the stock market trend” or “what gadgets will be the surprise hit this year” can be impacted and informed by societal issues and events like the COVID-19 breakout, tracking and projecting larger big-picture trends is a bit more reliable. These “Mega- trends” – powerful, historically-relentless forces that reshape society, the economy, and have transformative impact on our lives – things like electricity, air flight, cars, the Internet, the Kardashians – are longer term in nature, are less swayed even by events as consequential as a pandemic, and impact all aspects of the world. Identify- ing these Megatrends that are shaping the way consumers shop and buy products, work, play, and live their lives, informs the way businesses develop new products and services. And this certainly includes lottery player-ship and market-place dynamics. Our day-to- day activities can be so incredibly time consuming that the long view is often lost in the shuffle of prize structures, jackpots, inventory maintenance, hiring staff, and all this amidst the more recent phenomenon of non-stop video-meetings. But the future of our organizations depends on identifying these Megatrends, monitoring them closely and under- standing how they are reshaping the way people perceive and interact with the lottery. WHO MONITORS MEGATRENDS? Particularly interested in Megatrends are investment companies. As the arbiters of capital allocation, investment bankers try to look into the future to decide which in- dustries make the most sense for them and their clients to invest in. BlackRock, the New York-based investment company with more than $9 trillion under manage- ment, proclaims on its website: “Megatrends influence our investment decisions – from the businesses, industries and countries we invest in to the way we go about finding op- portunities.” Let’s piggy-back on BlackRock’s research and braintrust. Earlier this year, BlackRock identified these MegaTrends: Each has its own unique set of impacts which include: Climate change and resource scarcity could result in crop failure, widespread flooding, destroyed habitats and energy shortages. • Western diets will become increasingly plant-based • Renewable energy will fully replace fossil fuels SHIFTING ECONOMIC POWER TECHNOLOGICAL BREAKTHROUGH RAPID URBANIZATION DEMOGRAPHICS AND SOCIAL CL IMATE CHANGE AND RESOURCE SCARITY